Tuesday, spot gold traded near $4,307/oz after narrowing earlier gains, as easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking weighed on prices ahead of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release.
WTI crude traded around $56.63/barrel, extending losses amid strong expectations of a global oil supply surplus in 2026 and progress in Ukraine peace talks.
Gold
Gold trimmed intraday gains on Monday, as investors locked in profits following the recent rally. Spot gold settled at $4,304.91/oz, up 0.11% on the day, sharply below earlier gains of over 1%.
Analysts noted that gold eased after reports suggested progress in talks between the US and Ukrainian President Zelensky, reducing safe-haven demand. At the same time, profit-taking after recent highs added downside pressure.
Market focus has now shifted to upcoming US data, including Non-Farm Payrolls and retail sales, which could offer clearer guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing a 78% probability of a rate cut in January 2026.
Gold Technical View
On the daily chart, gold remains in a four-session winning streak, with consecutive small bullish candles signaling a steady but controlled uptrend. Bollinger Bands continue to open higher, with upside resistance seen near $4,330–4,350.
On the 4-hour chart, Friday’s US session showed a push higher followed by a pullback, suggesting room for further consolidation rather than a strong one-way move. Near-term support is seen at $4,280, while a deeper pullback could test $4,260. On the upside, $4,350 remains a key resistance zone.
Today’s Gold Focus
- Strategy bias: Buy on dips, sell into rallies
- Resistance: $4,330–4,350
- Support: $4,285–4,265
Oil
Oil prices extended losses on Monday, pressured by growing expectations of a global oil supply surplus in 2026. While rising tensions between the US and Venezuela disrupted some supply flows, these factors failed to offset broader bearish fundamentals.
Brent crude settled down 0.92% at $60.56/barrel, while WTI crude fell 1.08% to $56.82/barrel.
The main driver behind the decline remains expectations of excess supply next year, alongside fading geopolitical risk premiums. Reports suggesting flexibility from Ukrainian President Zelensky in negotiations with the US reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
That said, tighter US sanctions on Venezuela offered some support. Since the US seized oil tankers and imposed new restrictions last week, Venezuelan exports have dropped sharply. Analysts noted that without this disruption, oil losses could have been deeper.
Technical View
From a daily perspective, oil remains in a secondary consolidation phase, with mixed candles and repeated tests toward the $56 area. MACD remains below the zero line, showing weak bearish momentum.
On the 1-hour chart, prices are moving sideways around key moving averages, forming a narrow consolidation range between $56.80 and $58.10. Momentum remains soft, with sellers maintaining a slight edge.
Today’s Focus
- Strategy bias: Sell rallies, buy dips cautiously
- Resistance: $58.0–$59.0
- Support: $55.5–$54.5
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